Even if Gillard's hold on the office of PM goes terminal (and the last few weeks indicate that it's far from that) then changing leader now would be the worst possible outcome from everyone, even the Coalition.
First Gillard. If she loses the leadership now the it's game over for poor Julia. Forget Lazarus with a triple bypass, this goes well beyond any normal level of medical intervention. And with outstanding business that Rudd, or anyone else for that matter, would be reticent to inherit, then using up Gillard's remaining goodwill and political skill seems sensible.
Next Rudd. As I said last week, it's next April before we're even half way through the term of this Government, and optimally, Rudd would want around a year to re-engage with the voters. Any more and Tony Abbott will start to get his measure or, if that fails, the Libs will have time to try another leader.
Then there's the Labor Party. Infighting is what caused many of the Government's problems in the first place. Gillard will not, as Mungo MacCallum pointed out today, go quietly in any circumstance but will probably do so more if her numbers fail to rebound and if even she understands that her leadership is terminal. And of course, that may not happen in which case no coup is required. So no upside for the Labor Party in changing leaders now.
Finally, there's the Coalition. The old adage of if it's not broke don't fix it comes to mind. The Coalition is ahead and change at the top of Labor might alter that. The Coalition would be happy for Julia Gillard as their opponent at the next election.
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