1. It's a terrible poll for Labor. Can't spin it any other way. Just look at the graph... right back where they were in June undoing two months of steady gains. It still could be rogue but other polls are consistent with Newspoll here.
2. It's a terrible poll for Abbott too. 35% believe he will make the better PM and 48% will give the Coalition their first choice. This means that at least 13% will vote for the Coalition despite Abbott. Conversely, 10% more people put Gillard as their preferred PM than would give Labor their first preference vote.
Both of these bring me to my point. Apportioning Green preferences on the basis of the last election doesn't seem to me to be sensible. The Coalition has pledged to remove just about everything that this Labor/Green Government has done and thus there are likely to be few, if any, green voters that would preference the Coalition over Labor at the next election.
Looking again at point 2, 40% prefer Gillard as preferred PM (i.e. prefer Gillard to Abbott) and 40% will vote Labor or Green. Coincidence?
The task for Gillard now is to attract the 13% who will vote for the Coalition but are ambivalent about Abbott. And the task for Abbott is to stop this happening. If just half of these defect then it's 50-50.
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