Election 2013 - Abbott gone by then

This is my first ever blog so I thought I'd start, like many other people, with something I have a feeling for but really, deep down, like most other people, know very little about.  Politics.

One of the things that, if I get any, regular readers will start to learn is that I love figures and statistics.  And here's one to start with.  Assuming the current Government makes the current term last as long as it can, it will be April 10 next year before the current Government is even half way through its term.  That's a long time for things to change.

And so here is a prediction - Tony Abbott will not be opposition leader at the next election and there is an even chance that Julia Gillard won't be PM.  And here's why:

1. All sorts of currently active political issues will be history.  As much as the opposition (and at times the government of the day) would like it otherwise, the Australian electorate has a short memory.  Carbon Tax - done and dusted, Mining Tax - in and the tax relief flowing, Pokie legislation - an inconvenience but still largely forgotten - Crown Casino and NSW leagues clubs will still be in business and serving cut-price Schnitzels on Thursdays.
2. Tony Abbott is building a legacy of uncompromising promises that he will find difficult to sustain and which will start to look a little silly.  I suspect even now some of his colleagues are privately doubting the wisdom of some of them in the same way the Beasley's GST rollback was unsustainable.  The same goes for Gillard - asylum seekers will not go away and needs a different narrative to stop making it a political issue. 
3. The NBN.  More or less of half of Australia will have the NBN by then.  The killer apps will be appearing (by this I mean apps that need the sort of bandwidth that the NBN brings) and the other half will be wary of promises to abandon the project.  I suspect Malcolm Turnbull knows this too.
4. The Murdoch press is starting to lose its appeal and while its paywall may (or may not) reverse its financial fortunes, the people some of its journalists try to influence - the middle income Aussie battlers for whom $230 a year is a lot of money - will simply start to get their news from the free sources.  There are enough of them, the twitter feed from @AussieHeadlines being one of the best.  And the rise and rise of sites like crikey.com, for around $50 less, will also hurt them.
5. It is highly likely that by late 2013, the only state Labor Government left standing will be in SA.  So any odium as a result of state Labor will have dissipated and, as seems the usual pattern, by 2013 every late train, killer dog and hospital error will be a state liberal problem.
6. IR.  The rumblings about coalition impatience with IR reform may or may not be real.  But it will give Labor a lot on ammunition to work with.

But let us assume I'm wrong here and Tony's numbers stay high until, say, December 2012. Labor always have their not-so-secret weapon Kevin Rudd who they can wheel out to clear away the worst of what ever is still smelling.  The voters like Kevin, particularly in Queensland where, like it or not, the election will be won for Labor (although not for the Liberals - they need to take NSW - look at Antony Green's Pendulum. Of the 25 most marginal coalition seats, 10 are in Queensland. Conversely of the 25 most marginal labor seats, just 6 are in Queensland, and they require a bigger swing to get them, while 11 are in NSW.)  The rest of us will be hard pressed to get a visit.

Given this, it's not difficult to see why the opposition are calling for an election now.  Assuming Labor don't implode (always a possibility) the next election will be closer than it appears it might be reading the polls right now.