Misreading the Newspoll Results

The post by Dennis Shanahan this morning in The Australian was so pitiful in its attempt to derive a story in the Newspoll figures that wasn't there (or was there but was three months too late in the telling) prompted me to download the figures that are freely available from the Newspoll website and recreate them as a graph below (the figures are copyright Newspoll):

What is clear from this is that 

1. It's still a long time until the next election.  The x-axis of the graph is deliberately out until August 2013 to show how far we have to go - but could even be longer. 
2. The Two-Party-Preferred trends over the past six months is obvious and has not, as Shanahan writes, "been wiped out".
3. That neither Gillard nor Abbott are particularly popular.
4. That the number of uncommitted voters has been rising steadily.  Estimates of two-party preferred are thus more and more unreliable.

It was interesting that the Newspoll figures were not linked to his article - perhaps people would have realised that Labor are actually, for the three months in question, up in 4 out of 5 states and that Gillard, who comes in for quite a bit of flak in the article, is now preferred PM in 4 out of 5 states, including, significantly, WA.  Conversely, the Mumble piece the same day in the same newspaper did link the Newspoll stats and discussed them quite intelligently.

One has to wonder why the article was written at all.  It is a slow news day?  Is it politically self-fulfilling - say it long enough and loud enough and it happens?  Or is it a real fear that the NSW and Victorian results are trending back to Labor (as Mumble discusses) and that Queensland might do the same over the next year?  If Queensland was to emulate NSW then the TPP trend can only continue.

For an even more intelligent look at the data, have a look at Pollbludger too.

Queensland - land of opportunity or basket case?

"Gold Coast business operators say the Commonwealth Games has come just in time to save many tourist operators on the verge of going broke" (ABC News).   This statement is worrying on so many levels.

First, for most of us in Australia (and it seems most in government) Queensland is a land of bounteous opportunity exceeded only by WA. People are, according to the polls, selling up in Victoria and moving in droves to enjoy sun, sea and boom times. If one of the more famous Queensland areas has it hard then either (a) we've all got it wrong about Queensland or (b) Australia is in trouble nationally. And we know that (b) isn't the case (don't we?).

Second, statements like this are self-fulfilling. Headlines like this (and they are not generated this time by the media but by local politicians) have a habit of staying in the memory long after they become false. Witness Victoria and South Australia that both have a lower unemployment rate at 5.3% than Queensland at 5.7% but have both been tarred with being "rustbelt" states.

Third, and this is a concern for democracy in this country, there are a disproportionate number of marginal seats in some areas and this warps our sense of political response. According to Antony Green's Pendulum, of the 20 most marginal Labor-held seats, 6 are in Queensland, 7 are in NSW and no other state has more than 2.

All a bit of a worry really.

The November Newspoll - A few thoughts

A few thoughts that come to mind in the new Newspoll:

1.  It's a terrible poll for Labor.  Can't spin it any other way.  Just look at the graph...  right back where they were in June undoing two months of steady gains.  It still could be rogue but other polls are consistent with Newspoll here.

2.  It's a terrible poll for Abbott too.  35% believe he will make the better PM and 48% will give the Coalition their first choice.  This means that at least 13% will vote for the Coalition despite Abbott. Conversely, 10% more people put Gillard as their preferred PM than would give Labor their first preference vote.

Both of these bring me to my point.  Apportioning Green preferences on the basis of the last election doesn't seem to me to be sensible.  The Coalition has pledged to remove just about everything that this Labor/Green Government has done and thus there are likely to be few, if any, green voters that would preference the Coalition over Labor at the next election.

Looking again at point 2, 40% prefer Gillard as preferred PM (i.e. prefer Gillard to Abbott) and 40% will vote Labor or Green.  Coincidence?

The task for Gillard now is to attract the 13% who will vote for the Coalition but are ambivalent about Abbott.  And the task for Abbott is to stop this happening.  If just half of these defect then it's 50-50.

What's hidden in Newspoll's figures

A few interesting observations in Newspoll's opinion poll figures just released:

1. The Labor has gained three points, The greens have lost them.  And the Coalition have lost one point and "others" have gained one point.  Very few seem to have jumped the divide this month.
2. Add Labor and Greens primary vote together and you get the Liberals and the Nationals primary vote - exactly.  
3. TPP for labor has now edged higher in 5 consecutive polls.  Whatever Mumble says - that's a trend.
4. The Labor party primary vote is a full six points below where it was at the election.  However, the Liberal primary vote is back where it was at the election last year.
5. Abbott's numbers are definitely trending.  Just draw a line through Tony Abbott's figure on the image on Mumble's Australian blog.

Too early for Rudd

Even if Gillard's hold on the office of PM goes terminal (and the last few weeks indicate that it's far from that) then changing leader now would be the worst possible outcome from everyone, even the Coalition.

First Gillard. If she loses the leadership now the it's game over for poor Julia. Forget Lazarus with a triple bypass, this goes well beyond any normal level of medical intervention. And with outstanding business that Rudd, or anyone else for that matter, would be reticent to inherit, then using up Gillard's remaining goodwill and political skill seems sensible.

Next Rudd. As I said last week, it's next April before we're even half way through the term of this Government, and optimally, Rudd would want around a year to re-engage with the voters. Any more and Tony Abbott will start to get his measure or, if that fails, the Libs will have time to try another leader.

Then there's the Labor Party. Infighting is what caused many of the Government's problems in the first place. Gillard will not, as Mungo MacCallum pointed out today, go quietly in any circumstance but will probably do so more if her numbers fail to rebound and if even she understands that her leadership is terminal. And of course, that may not happen in which case no coup is required. So no upside for the Labor Party in changing leaders now.

Finally, there's the Coalition. The old adage of if it's not broke don't fix it comes to mind. The Coalition is ahead and change at the top of Labor might alter that. The Coalition would be happy for Julia Gillard as their opponent at the next election.

The narrative has changed

I don't think I'm the only one to notice that the tone of editorial comment about both the government and the opposition has changed.  Six, even two months ago Julia Gillard couldn't pull a trick and even the ABC was reticent to criticise Tony Abbott further than asking for more policy.

But all that seems to be changing.

A Barry Cassidy piece on the Drum today was interesting not so much for the piece itself (although I love Barry's work) as for the comments at the end that indicated almost a relief that some parts of the media were, to put it in the words of one commenter, "no longer worshiping and emulating the Murdoch model".

On top of that, increasing numbers of the commentariat are scrutinising Tony Abbott more closely and, even those sympathetic to the Coalition, are wanting more.  Articles from Laura Tingle and Drag0nista have highlighted this and Bernard Keane in Crikey yesterday (easily the best journalism around) stated that "there’s a growing sense that Abbott, successful as he has been, has come off the boil in recent weeks".

And recent opinion polls have, from a position of unassailable strength, started to wobble with Newspoll giving the Coalition 1% TPP less in the last two outings.  Now I'm enough of a statistician to know that two data points don't make a trend but it's safe to say the climb in Coalition TPP has halted ... unless, of course, Labor have one of their implosion moments which have been all to frequent.

The next Newspoll is due very soon - could be very interesting.

Election 2013 - Abbott gone by then

This is my first ever blog so I thought I'd start, like many other people, with something I have a feeling for but really, deep down, like most other people, know very little about.  Politics.

One of the things that, if I get any, regular readers will start to learn is that I love figures and statistics.  And here's one to start with.  Assuming the current Government makes the current term last as long as it can, it will be April 10 next year before the current Government is even half way through its term.  That's a long time for things to change.

And so here is a prediction - Tony Abbott will not be opposition leader at the next election and there is an even chance that Julia Gillard won't be PM.  And here's why:

1. All sorts of currently active political issues will be history.  As much as the opposition (and at times the government of the day) would like it otherwise, the Australian electorate has a short memory.  Carbon Tax - done and dusted, Mining Tax - in and the tax relief flowing, Pokie legislation - an inconvenience but still largely forgotten - Crown Casino and NSW leagues clubs will still be in business and serving cut-price Schnitzels on Thursdays.
2. Tony Abbott is building a legacy of uncompromising promises that he will find difficult to sustain and which will start to look a little silly.  I suspect even now some of his colleagues are privately doubting the wisdom of some of them in the same way the Beasley's GST rollback was unsustainable.  The same goes for Gillard - asylum seekers will not go away and needs a different narrative to stop making it a political issue. 
3. The NBN.  More or less of half of Australia will have the NBN by then.  The killer apps will be appearing (by this I mean apps that need the sort of bandwidth that the NBN brings) and the other half will be wary of promises to abandon the project.  I suspect Malcolm Turnbull knows this too.
4. The Murdoch press is starting to lose its appeal and while its paywall may (or may not) reverse its financial fortunes, the people some of its journalists try to influence - the middle income Aussie battlers for whom $230 a year is a lot of money - will simply start to get their news from the free sources.  There are enough of them, the twitter feed from @AussieHeadlines being one of the best.  And the rise and rise of sites like crikey.com, for around $50 less, will also hurt them.
5. It is highly likely that by late 2013, the only state Labor Government left standing will be in SA.  So any odium as a result of state Labor will have dissipated and, as seems the usual pattern, by 2013 every late train, killer dog and hospital error will be a state liberal problem.
6. IR.  The rumblings about coalition impatience with IR reform may or may not be real.  But it will give Labor a lot on ammunition to work with.

But let us assume I'm wrong here and Tony's numbers stay high until, say, December 2012. Labor always have their not-so-secret weapon Kevin Rudd who they can wheel out to clear away the worst of what ever is still smelling.  The voters like Kevin, particularly in Queensland where, like it or not, the election will be won for Labor (although not for the Liberals - they need to take NSW - look at Antony Green's Pendulum. Of the 25 most marginal coalition seats, 10 are in Queensland. Conversely of the 25 most marginal labor seats, just 6 are in Queensland, and they require a bigger swing to get them, while 11 are in NSW.)  The rest of us will be hard pressed to get a visit.

Given this, it's not difficult to see why the opposition are calling for an election now.  Assuming Labor don't implode (always a possibility) the next election will be closer than it appears it might be reading the polls right now.